Nassim Taleb on intellectuals, theory & practice
Taleb holds that practical knowledge comes from tinkering, heuristics and implicit know-how, and that theorists mostly explain it afterwards, then take the credit. Academics judged only by their peers can drift from reality, and the 'intellectual yet idiot' brings lab-based ideas about rationality into a world where the odds and payoffs are unknown. He recommends watching what people do rather than what they say, and saving skepticism for the people trying to sell you something.
16 points · 6 appearances · 2008–2024
How the view evolved
Academics lecture birds on flying and take credit → Knowledge comes from tinkering; universities recycle it
In 2008 it is a quip: academics lecture birds on flying, then explain aerodynamics. By 2013 it is an argument with evidence: knowledge is generated by tinkering and only later recycled by universities, and countries got rich before they got educated.
Overestimating small probabilities is necessary to survive → Real people underestimate tails; lab subjects overestimate them
In 2018 he says overestimating small probabilities is necessary for survival, against behavioral finance. By 2024 he says why the lab gets it backwards: real people underestimate tails, and the lab differs because subjects know the odds and payoffs, which people in the real world do not.
Up next
2013–2020 · changed view
“Hammurabi's rule, and it says the following: if the architect builds a building and the building collapses and kills the owner of the building, what should happen to the architect? It should be put to death. I mean, it was Babylon 3,800 years ago, so they were not, you know -- didn't have a very sophisticated legal code, all right. And then of course if it kills the firstborn, the firstborn son of the architect is put to death. So they're really looking for symmetry. Now what was the idea of Hammurabi's code? It was not eye for eye -- eye for eye limiting damages, you know, and making things balanced. No, it was that you cannot walk away from risks you've created for others. You should own your risks. That's the idea of Hammurabi's code.”
2008–2024
“The whole idea of the Black Swan, everything I've been telling everyone, every person I meet, is to bet on disruption, on unforeseen, to not be harmed by silent risk. Okay, that's the idea. The first thing is don't be harmed by it.”
2013–2023 · changed view
“Please mishandle. So something that is fragile, if you map it properly mathematically, you'd realize that the fragile is what does not like disorder. It doesn't want mishandling, it doesn't want volatility, it wants peace and predictability. So the opposite of that would be something that love volatility.”
2008–2024 · changed view
“So there was an expression until we saw Australia, and effectively one, the sighting of a single bird destroyed millennia of confirmation. So it was a post as a logical problem, by showing that there's no reason, you cannot rule out a Black Swan because you haven't seen any. Okay, my problem is not a logical question. My Black Swan is an event, it's not a bird. So, and it's an event that has three properties.”